·MACRO

MACRO — Weekly Macro — Rates, Dollar, Gold & Oil.

6 briefs from the QAXUS Intelligence desk covering Weekly Macro — Rates, Dollar, Gold & Oil. Latest updates on market days.

SYMBOL
MACRO
CATEGORY
Macro
BRIEFS
6
LATEST
2026-07-13

MACRO-2026-07-13-WEEKLY

Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:03 UTC

Complacency Meets Inflation Risk as Gold Breaks, Oil Reprices Hormuz, and CPI Tests the Fed

The week opens with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $69.60, Brent crude (BRENT) at $69.56, gold (XAU) at $4,057, the US Dollar Index (DXY) firming near prior resistance, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 15.84 — a calm surface over a tighter macro tape. Tuesday’s CPI, Wednesday’s PPI, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony hit as real 10-year yields sit near 2.30% and OPEC+ pushes another 188,000 bpd into an oil market still pricing Hormuz risk. The decision point is simple: a soft CPI keeps vol pinned and gold’s break below $4,100 false; a hot print locks in the hawkish Fed read, lifts the dollar, and turns this week from complacent to defensive fast.

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MACRO-2026-07-06-WEEKLY

Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:02 UTC

Supply Normalization Rinses the Crude Premium; Gold Coils for a Squeeze Under a Higher-For-Longer Curve

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits at $71.87 and Brent crude (BRENT) at $71.59 — back to pre-war levels — while gold (XAU) holds $4,154 after a $65 intraday range and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settles to 16.59. The 10y at 4.48% and a +35bp 2y10y steepener price 66% odds of a September hike, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is oddly soft against rising real yields near 2.25%. Wednesday's first Warsh-led FOMC minutes is the week's fulcrum: a September-hike threshold spikes real yields and caps gold, while silence unwinds the premium and hands CTA shorts a squeeze.

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MACRO-2026-06-08-WEEKLY

Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:04 UTC

The Fed's Hike Pivot Meets a $100 Oil Shock — CPI Wednesday Decides the Regime

West Texas Intermediate sits at $95.96 and Brent at $98.29 — both up ~5% on the week — while gold (XAU) holds $4,329 and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) lingers at 15.4, a calm that feels rented. Rate futures now price a 68% chance of a Fed hike by December after May payrolls printed 172k against 85k expected, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) drifts lower even as the front end reprices hawkish. Wednesday's CPI — consensus 4.3% YoY versus 3.8% prior — is the catalyst that either cements the no-cuts-maybe-hikes regime or hands the doves a reprieve; a Hormuz reopening is the only thing that breaks the energy-inflation loop.

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MACRO-2026-06-01-WEEKLY

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:03 UTC

Hormuz Headlines vs Physical Tightness: Stagflation Trap Widens

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $97.63 meets gold (XAU) spot at $4,506 and breakevens anchored at 2.38%—risk assets trapped between diplomacy-driven headline compression and 17M-barrel weekly inventory draws. Friday's May payrolls and ISM Manufacturing (Mon) determine whether the Fed hawks get the data they need to formalize a tightening bias at Warsh's June 17 debut. The catalyst: a signed U.S.-Iran MOU with verified Hormuz timeline—if shipping doesn't restart in 30 days, oil snaps back above $105 and the stagflation trap deepens.

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MACRO-2026-05-25-WEEKLY

Mon, 25 May 2026 12:02 UTC

Hormuz Squeeze and Warsh's Debut Frame a Stagflationary Gauntlet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $112, gold (XAU) printing new highs at $4,570, VIX settling at 16.8 with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 119.3 — the macro tape is repricing a late-cycle stagflationary corridor. Friday's PCE print (exp. +3.8% YoY) lands two weeks ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC; April minutes already showed a majority leaning toward 'policy firming.' The week's fulcrum: does the Hormuz blockade's 13% global oil withdrawal maintain oil's $112+ bid, or does the Pakistan-brokered Iran-deal rumor resolve into crude back below $100?

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MACRO-2026-05-18-WEEKLY

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:08 UTC

Hormuz Supply Shock Meets Hawkish Fed Pivot: Stagflation Risk Dominates the Tape

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $101.56, gold (XAU) at $4,568, VIX at 18.43, 10y yield at 4.47% — the tape is pricing a stagflationary mix for the first time this cycle. April FOMC minutes drop Wednesday with former Fed voices flagging rate hikes as "very much a possibility" amid a 14M+ bpd Hormuz supply hole. The trigger: whether the minutes acknowledge the energy shock as inflationary or treat it as transitory — that answer sets the regime for Q3.

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