·MACRO

MACRO — Macro Weekly (narrative).

3 briefs from the QAXUS Intelligence desk covering Macro Weekly (narrative). Latest updates on market days.

SYMBOL
MACRO
CATEGORY
Macro
BRIEFS
3
LATEST
2026-06-01

MACRO-2026-06-01-WEEKLY

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:03 UTC

Hormuz Headlines vs Physical Tightness: Stagflation Trap Widens

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $97.63 meets gold (XAU) spot at $4,506 and breakevens anchored at 2.38%—risk assets trapped between diplomacy-driven headline compression and 17M-barrel weekly inventory draws. Friday's May payrolls and ISM Manufacturing (Mon) determine whether the Fed hawks get the data they need to formalize a tightening bias at Warsh's June 17 debut. The catalyst: a signed U.S.-Iran MOU with verified Hormuz timeline—if shipping doesn't restart in 30 days, oil snaps back above $105 and the stagflation trap deepens.

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MACRO-2026-05-25-WEEKLY

Mon, 25 May 2026 12:02 UTC

Hormuz Squeeze and Warsh's Debut Frame a Stagflationary Gauntlet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $112, gold (XAU) printing new highs at $4,570, VIX settling at 16.8 with the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 119.3 — the macro tape is repricing a late-cycle stagflationary corridor. Friday's PCE print (exp. +3.8% YoY) lands two weeks ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC; April minutes already showed a majority leaning toward 'policy firming.' The week's fulcrum: does the Hormuz blockade's 13% global oil withdrawal maintain oil's $112+ bid, or does the Pakistan-brokered Iran-deal rumor resolve into crude back below $100?

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MACRO-2026-05-18-WEEKLY

Mon, 18 May 2026 14:08 UTC

Hormuz Supply Shock Meets Hawkish Fed Pivot: Stagflation Risk Dominates the Tape

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $101.56, gold (XAU) at $4,568, VIX at 18.43, 10y yield at 4.47% — the tape is pricing a stagflationary mix for the first time this cycle. April FOMC minutes drop Wednesday with former Fed voices flagging rate hikes as "very much a possibility" amid a 14M+ bpd Hormuz supply hole. The trigger: whether the minutes acknowledge the energy shock as inflationary or treat it as transitory — that answer sets the regime for Q3.

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