How the calls held up.
Every brief commits to a base-case scenario with a defined range. We score each one against the realized move — Bitcoin's price range at 1, 7, and 30 days; the markets desk's next-session call against the actual close. No cherry-picking, no hindsight edits. The desk is on the record.
Across 324+ measured Bitcoin brief-horizons, the base case contained the realized move 89% of the time at next session and 56% at one week.
| COVERAGE | HORIZON | BRIEFS | BASE-CASE HIT | AVG MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Next session | 168 | 89% | -0.19% |
| Bitcoin | 1 week | 156 | 56% | -1.56% |
| Bitcoin | 1 month | 110 | 32% | -10.61% |
| Macro (Gold) | Next session | 5 | 60% | -0.82% |
| Macro (Gold) | 1 week | 5 | 40% | -1.93% |
| Macro (Gold) | 1 month | 4 | 0% | -8.79% |
Method. Each brief publishes a three-scenario outlook (bear / base / bull) with defined ranges. At each horizon we take the entry price the desk saw at publish and the realized price after, then check which scenario the move landed in. Bitcoin uses absolute price ranges; the markets desk uses next-session percentage ranges, scored at the one-session horizon only.
Sample sizes are small and growing — the desk has been publishing in-house since late April 2026. This page recomputes as new briefs mature. All briefs free while we build.