Bitcoin volatility, measured — not vibes.

What this number is

Realized volatility measures how much Bitcoin has actually moved — not what options markets expect. The headline figure is a Yang-Zhang estimate over the last 60 daily bars: it reads each day's open, high, low, and close, which makes it far harder to fool than a simple close-to-close calculation. Because Bitcoin trades 24/7, the desk annualizes with a 365-day factor rather than the equity convention of 252.

How to read the regime tag

Volatility tells you the size of moves; the regime tells you their character. The tag is derived from the Hurst exponent of daily returns over the same 60-day window. Below ~0.45 the tape is mean-reverting — extremes tend to fade, and chasing breakouts is how ranges eat traders. Near 0.5, price is a random walk and there is no persistence edge either way. Above ~0.55 the tape is trending, and momentum is the friend.

Today's read: Hurst 0.67 — a trending tape. This is the same regime signal the desk uses to set trend-versus-fade bias in every Bitcoin brief.

Bitcoin versus equity volatility

Over the current 60-day window Bitcoin is running 43.0% annualized against the S&P 500's 14.0% — roughly 3.1× the equity benchmark. The multiple is itself a signal: it compresses when crypto is calm and institutional flows dominate, and expands violently when leverage unwinds. A shrinking multiple with flat price is quiet accumulation; an expanding one usually means forced positioning.

Why the desk publishes this

Every QAXUS Intelligence brief carries a volatility and regime read because position sizing without a volatility anchor is guessing. The full context — levels, flows, positioning, and a scored three-scenario outlook — ships in the Bitcoin coverage stream twice every market day, and every call is scored in public.