The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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$60K holds on a flushed book — but a -18.5% month and a hawkish Fed keep the path of least resistance lower
BTC pinned at $59.9K on a cleaned-out book — extreme fear meets a hostile macro and Saylor turning seller
BTC sub-$60K into quarter-end: eight weeks of ETF bleed meets a bid that won't break $58K
BTC closes a losing Q2 below $60K as a collapsing Iran ceasefire and a 120-handle dollar pin the tape at its lows
BTC defends $58K on record ETF bleed — a conviction test, not a cycle break, with macro still tightening
BTC bounces off $58.2K into a hawkish Fed wall — washed-out positioning, but $65.5K is the only proof bulls have
BTC snapshot at $59.6K after a 20.4% 30-day decline — $58K remains the conditional hinge
BTC cracks $60K to 20-month lows as risk capital flees crypto for Treasuries — $58.2K is the line
BTC cracks $60K to 21-month lows as dollar peaks and oil unwinds — the pressure is macro, the entry is contrarian
BTC clings to $61K into a $10B OpEx as the Hormuz oil unwind hands risk assets a disinflation gift the tape hasn't priced
BTC loses $60K to an 8-month low as the oil crash kills the last prop under the debasement trade
BTC bounces off $59K base into a hawkish Fed — de-escalation removed the tail risk and the crisis bid alike
BTC drifts to $62.4K in textbook downtrend as a strong dollar overpowers the Iran-oil tailwind
BTC sheds 4.4% to $62.2k as the oil-war premium deflates straight into Fed-hike pricing
BTC claws to $64.4K off the lows, but a surging dollar and six straight weeks of ETF bleed cap the bounce
BTC holds $65K through six weeks of ETF bleed as Hormuz risk and Fink's $700K call frame a washed-out tape
BTC bases at $63.8K into a hawkish Warsh tape and a hardening Hormuz closure — trend still down, but shorts are squeezeable
BTC pins $64K in a trending tape — Hormuz rhetoric and a hawkish 2Y cap the upside, but leverage is flushed
BTC reclaims $63.8K off the $59.4K low, but a flushed book meets a hawkish 2Y and $4.4B in ETF bleed
BTC reclaims $63.5K off the $59K low — trending tape meets a hawkish rates wall
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.