The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Extreme Fear meets a de-escalation tape: BTC pins $63K as oil unwinds but yields and hawkish Fed cap the bounce
BTC bleeds to $62.7K as Warsh's hawkish Fed swamps the Hormuz peace bid — purged book, no panic volume
Ceasefire eases oil, but bear-steepening rates pin BTC at $63K — extreme fear hasn't bought the dip yet
Iran ceasefire cracks the year's biggest tail-risk, but BTC at $64.3K still trades like beta, not a hedge
Oil collapse loosens conditions, but BTC rejects $65K into Warsh's debut — relief rally on thin air
Oil collapse and dovish macro turn meet Extreme Fear at $65K — but the tape still belongs to the downtrend
Hormuz deal kills the oil premium, but BTC sits out the risk-on move — short-covering, not accumulation
Hormuz peace deal hands BTC a macro tailwind — but broken demand keeps $66K a coin-flip, not a launchpad
BTC reclaims $66.5K on Iran peace relief — but it's macro beta, not a structural bid, with BOJ next
Iran deal collapses oil and Fed hike odds — BTC breaks to $66.5K, but a thin book and Tuesday's BOJ guard the door
BTC coils at $64.3K into a Hormuz-reopening catalyst — Extreme Fear and a clean book against half-volume conviction
BTC grinds to $64.2K on a wall of worry — Iran deal and Warsh FOMC are next week's circuit-breakers
Peace-deal bounce lifts BTC to $64.1k, but a strong dollar and Warsh's first FOMC cap the squeeze
BTC reclaims $63K as the Hormuz risk premium collapses — but a clean book and Warsh's first FOMC keep the bounce on probation
BTC reclaims $63K on Iran de-escalation, but 2.26% real yields keep the macro path tilted lower
BTC bounces 2.6% to $63.3K, but a tightening macro and a broken Iran ceasefire keep this a relief rally, not a turn
Hormuz shuts, oil rips, Fed hike odds harden — BTC's $62.9K bounce is a relief, not a reversal
BTC pinned at $61.7K, 4% above the $59K floor — extreme fear meets a macro that won't blink
BTC pins $61.5K at extreme fear as CPI looms — lean OI and negative funding set up a binary squeeze
BTC grinds at $62K with no panic and no bid — outflows slow but macro offers no rescue
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.