The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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$649M ETF Bleed Meets Iran Ceasefire Fog — BTC Holds $77K as Macro Tightens
BTC Holds $77k on Iran Pause, but 4.6% Yields and Compressed OI Signal No Clear Edge
Bond Vigilantes Pin BTC Below $77K as Iran Talks Buy Time, Not Conviction
BTC Slides to $76.9K as Hormuz Standoff, 10Y Spike, and $1B+ ETF Outflows Pressure Support
BTC Slips to $77K as Hormuz Deadlock and Rising Breakevens Test Institutional Conviction
BTC coils at $78.3k as Hormuz closure tightens real yields — washed-out positioning meets the strongest macro headwind of the cycle
BTC $78K caught between Hormuz-driven macro tax and a quietly clean setup — fade weakness into $74-75K, invalidate sub-$73.7K
BTC slips to $79K as Brent $108 and 2% real yields overwhelm a still-broadening corporate bid — range trade, not breakdown
BTC stuck mid-range at $80.3K as $635M ETF bleed meets JPMorgan's 174% IBIT add — flow tape is split, macro isn't
Clarity Act bid lifts BTC to $82k ceiling — but 3.8% CPI and $105 Brent are quietly repricing the rate path
BTC pinned at $79.7K: range mean-reverts as PPI shocks rates, ETFs bleed $635M, and CLARITY Act vote becomes the binary
BTC pinned at $79.7k as seven-week ETF streak meets a record oil deficit the tape refuses to price
BTC coils at $80K as hot CPI and a dead Iran ceasefire outweigh a six-week ETF inflow streak — fade strength into $82.5K
BTC holds $80.7K as Brent prints $105 and ETFs absorb size — the quiet bid is louder than the macro noise
BTC pinned at $80.8K — ETF bid vs. oil-driven stagflation tape, CLARITY vote and CPI decide the range break
Coiled at $82.5K: ETF streak hits six weeks while Hormuz, oil at $104 and sticky real yields cap the breakout
BTC pinned at $81K as Iran deadlock bids the dollar and crude — MSBT inflows hold the floor, $82.5K caps the ceiling.
BTC pinned at $80.7k: six-week ETF streak meets Hormuz blockade — coiled spring or range-top fade?
BTC coils at $80.9K: six-week ETF streak intact but flows flip, Hormuz frays, and rates keep the lid on
BTC stalls at $80.8K range top as six-week ETF streak meets a fragile Hormuz ceasefire
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.