The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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BTC holds $80k as CLARITY tailwind meets a stalled ETF streak — squeeze setup, but volume is thinning into resistance
CLARITY pop meets Hormuz fire: BTC pinned at $80k with squeeze fuel loaded and oil shock unresolved
BTC pinned at $80k while gold, curve and dollar hand it a Goldilocks setup it won't claim — Hormuz and ETF flows hold the keys
Macro tailwind meets $82.5k seller wall — BTC coiled at $80k as oil unwinds and ETF flows absorb supply
BTC $81K, coiled under $82.5K — macro tailwind real, spot conviction missing, Iran framework binary
BTC pinned at $82.5K resistance as Iran deal collapses oil 7% — squeeze fuel loaded, breakout still unconfirmed
BTC pins the 30-day high at $81.6K as the curve disinverts and Hormuz reignites — clean line, dirty backdrop
BTC pins 30-day high at $81,268 as $532M ETF day meets a Hormuz oil shock — range break or rejection decides the next leg
BTC pins $80K as Iran shatters ceasefire — hard-asset rotation meets a fragile futures-led rally at the range ceiling
BTC pinned at $78.9k range high on thin volume — perp-led rally, fading ETF flows, Iran gambit unresolved
BTC coils at $78.7k as VIX collapses and ETFs print a record April — but Hormuz keeps the dollar bid alive
BTC coils at $78.4K as VIX collapses and Clarity Act hits 70% odds — institutional flows absorb supply, retail still fearful
BTC pinned at $78K with 89% of ETF flows on one ticker — clean book, dirty oil tape, range waits on a Clarity Act trigger
BTC at the range high on thin volume: squeeze fuel is loaded, but real yields and Hormuz keep the trigger holstered.
BTC reclaims $77K on Iran off-ramp and ETF bid — but $111 Brent and a 3.92% 2-year keep the breakout on a leash
BTC stalls at $76.5k as $126 Brent and stalled Iran talks force a stagflation re-pricing the tape hasn't fully accepted
Brent at $125 caps BTC near $79K, but ETFs are absorbing 9x issuance — flows lead, price will follow
BTC pinned at $75.7K as Brent tops $115 and the 2-year backs up — ETFs absorb 9x issuance into the fear
BTC pinned at $77K as ETFs swallow 9x new supply — but basis-hedged flows and $112 Brent cap the breakout
BTC pinned at $76.4K: ETFs absorb 9× issuance while Hormuz deadlock keeps Brent bid and the range intact
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.