The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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BTC holds $84K into the $85K sell wall as $2.6B of ETF inflows collide with a 5.18% 10-year
Record ETF bid meets 5.18% 10Y and $100 Brent — BTC holds $84K in a standoff it hasn't yet resolved
Index green masks a rotation split: energy and industrials carry the tape while high-beta tech and crypto-leverage fade under a 5.18% 10-year
BTC holds $84K as ETF bid absorbs an oil-and-yield squeeze; Hormuz peace offer is the swing factor
BTC holds $84K as $2.3B of ETF demand collides with a 5.1% 10-year and a hawkish Fed clock
Yields at 5.11% pin equities flat while vol stays asleep — the tape is holding its breath, not resolving
Record ETF demand meets a rising-yield wall: BTC stalls at $84K as macro traders set the marginal price
Record ETF bid can't outmuscle a 4.96% 10-year — BTC slips to $83.5K as yields set the ceiling
Six-day chip rally finally cracks: NVDA -1.5%, MSTR -3% lead a risk-off fade even as VIX prints 14 and yields sit still
A $2.3B ETF wall meets a 5% 10-year: BTC pins at $84K into Friday's $18B expiry
Record ETF haul drives BTC to $87K breakout, then a $85.4K digest — the tape now trades on flow durability
Nasdaq melts up on chips while SPY stalls flat — the index tape is a single-sector story, not a broad advance
BTC parks at $86K into 30-day range highs as a $1B+ ETF day and short squeeze do the heavy lifting
BTC pins $86K on record $999M ETF day — but positioning trails price and $87K is the gate to $90K
Risk-on rotation into AI and crypto-torque names lifts Nasdaq 2.8% even as the 10-year sits at 5% — a growth bid that ignored the rate signal
BTC rips 7% to $87K as oil bleeds and ETF demand snaps back — but the tape smells like a short squeeze
BTC clears $85K on a falling-oil, softening-yield tailwind — but the rally is still riding short-covering, not conviction
Hawkish Fed Meets an Oil Shock: The Rate Trade Overrides Everything
BTC pins $81K as ETF bid returns and a Middle East shock stalls the run into the $83K wall
BTC holds $80K as Fidelity-led ETF cash snaps back — but $83K supply wall caps the bounce
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.