The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Flat index print hides a failed breakout: tech rejects the highs, MSTR cracks -9.3% on sub-$60k Bitcoin, all eyes on Micron
AI capex unwind drags Nasdaq -3.3% while staples and financials hold — this is a single-sector rout testing breadth, not yet a broad break
Mega-cap tech bleeds as Alphabet drags the Nasdaq, but breadth says rotation — not risk-off
Tech bid pays for the front-end shock — QQQ +2.4% absorbs a 15bp 2y spike, but MSTR breaks down and rates aren't confirming
Bond market shrugs, equities flinch: hawkish Warsh debut sells the tape while high-beta crypto and EV proxies lead the bleed
Tech leads a quiet tape lower as NVDA fades its record bond raise — vol stays calm, but the breakout failed into FOMC
Relief rally led by beta: Iran-deal vol unwind lifts QQQ 3.1% and NVDA's $20B bond tap, but a steepening curve keeps it tactical
Rates did the heavy lifting, but the tape says risk appetite is rebuilding beyond index relief
Tech-led rebound reclaimed the tape, but it did so with 10-year yields at 4.55% and VIX still above 22
AI leadership cracked again, and with the dollar firm and vol near 20, this looks like distribution—not a clean dip
Crowded-AI flush, not a rollover — but MSTR's broken 'never sell' rule is the overhang index puts can't hedge
Tech leads the bounce but the bond market hasn't signed off — QQQ +1.6% rides NVDA's buy-the-dip while a 4.55% 10-year keeps the leash short
AVGO's air pocket breaks the AI-capex consensus — $1T in chips erased, no dip-buyer in sight, and the tape is trending down
Dow rips to a record while tech bleeds — Broadcom's no-raise resets the AI ceiling and the rotation does the rest
Semi leadership cracked on AVGO gravity: NVDA -3.6% lost $220, MSTR -7% broke $130 on BTC sale optics
AI Capex Bid Intact but NVDA's Bearish Reversal and MSTR's Breakdown Signal Narrow Leadership Fatigue
SPY grinds to fresh highs but NVDA and TSLA close at lows — MSTR breakout is the risk-on tell
Record Highs Mask MSTR Divergence as AI Capex Floor Overrides Sticky Real Yields
Rates ease sharply as AI capex cycle rotates — NVDA yawns while memory rips
SPY prints fresh highs but NVDA and MSTR crack beneath — index breadth diverging from its leaders
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.