The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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BTC pins $77K as yields punch to 4.95% — three-week ETF run cracks into $450M of outflows
BTC holds $77K as oil war and 4.95% 10Y crush risk appetite — ETF bid is the only thing standing
CPI-relief bounce papers over a 4.95% 10-year — the tape rallied but yields, not breadth, own tomorrow
BTC stalls at $77.3K as 10Y punches to 4.95% — ETF bid intact but the bond tape is calling the shots
BTC claws back to $77.9K after four-day slide, but $80K ceiling and $105 oil keep the tape defensive
Semis lead a de-risking tape lower — NVDA -2.4% drags QQQ under SPY as oil taxes the AI trade into CPI
Oil over $100 and hot inflation snap BTC's ETF rally; $77K holds as the last floor before $76K
BTC defends the 7-day low at $76.8K as oil, hike odds and outflows stack — no edge until $81.7K or the floor breaks
Orderly pullback, not a break: rates grind higher, MSTR takes the brunt, and NVDA fades into a Goldman catalyst
BTC coils at $78K in a trending tape — $1B of ETF demand fights a 4.80% 10Y and $100 oil for control
BTC coils under $80K on record ETF demand — but a hawkish Fed and $99 war-oil cap the squeeze
Index calm masks a leverage flush: NVDA loses 230, MSTR bleeds 4.4%, and a lone TSLA surge to 368 does the concealing
BTC holds $78.5K into the range high as ETF money absorbs an oil spike and a hawkish front end
BTC stalls 4% under 81.7K as $3.8B ETF haul meets an oil-led macro wall before CPI
BTC parked at $79.2K, 87% up its range on $3.8B ETF bid — but CPI Friday and Brent at $96 hold the fuse
BTC holds $79.6k up 89% of its 30d band, but a hawkish Fed and CPI Friday cap the breakout
Energy Supply Shock Meets a Live Hawkish Fed — CPI Friday Is the Hinge
BTC pins $80K on a record ETF bid while $96 Brent and a sticky 4.77% 10Y hold the ceiling
BTC clings to $80K on record ETF inflows, but a hot jobs print and near-5% 10Y put a September hike back in play
BTC holds $79.7K after hot payrolls flip the Fed to hike odds — ETF bid vs macro, and macro is winning the tape
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.