The research publication of QAXUS
Subscribe via RSS
Subscribe via RSSIntelligence.
A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
354 briefs141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160
ETF demand carries BTC to $65K, but rising real yields cap the bid until the 10Y rolls over
Weak NFP hands BTC a macro tailwind, but a light-volume $65K stall keeps the breakout unconfirmed
BTC grinds to $64.9K on thin tape as ETF inflows absorb Coldcard-driven supply; Hormuz caps the ceiling
BTC coils at $65K into NFP: record-low 23% upside vol, ETF spine holding, oil the wildcard
BTC pinned mid-range at $64K as ETF inflows return into Extreme Fear — accumulation, not breakout
BTC pinned at $64.4K as ETF bids absorb Extreme Fear — payrolls and a Hormuz deal are the two triggers left
BTC holds $64.8K on a trending tape — but a one-fund ETF bid and a selling Strategy keep the breakout honest
BTC holds $64.3K mid-range as ETF bid flips positive and Hormuz de-escalation drains the oil premium
Hormuz de-escalation and $153M of ETF buying meet a $100M custody scare — BTC drifts at $64.3k, mid-range
Hormuz relief bid lifts BTC to $63.8k, but hawkish carry and a fragile flow book cap the ceiling
BTC's $63.7K bounce is oil-relief, not a re-rate — clean book, one-name ETF demand, resistance at $66.8K
Oil craters on Trump-Iran deal but BTC can't lift off $62.6K — flows and MSTR selling cap the bounce
Hormuz de-escalation hands BTC a contrarian bid at $63.4K — but lower highs and thin tape keep it tactical
BTC pins $63K into a Coldcard custody panic and $100 oil — capitulation sentiment meets a live Strategy overhang
BTC pinned at $62.6k with a $5B Strategy overhang and weekend Iran strike risk into Monday's open
BTC pinned at $63K in a washed-out range — hawkish rates cap the bid, Gaza and payrolls hold the key
Hawkish Fed and $89 crude cap BTC at the range midline — 62.5k is the line that decides August
BTC grinds to $63.7K under a hawkish Fed and $88 Brent — extreme fear meets a stubborn ETF bid
BTC holds $64.7K on a late ETF-flow flip, but a collapsed Iran ceasefire and a 9-3 Fed keep the bid tactical
BTC grinds $64.8K through a hawkish hold and a widening Gulf war — resilience without conviction
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.