The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Weak NFP hands BTC a macro tailwind, but a light-volume $65K stall keeps the breakout unconfirmed
Bad-news-is-good-news payrolls miss sends S&P to fresh highs — but it's a tech melt-up on floor-level flows, and the bond market didn't get the memo
BTC grinds to $64.9K on thin tape as ETF inflows absorb Coldcard-driven supply; Hormuz caps the ceiling
BTC coils at $65K into NFP: record-low 23% upside vol, ETF spine holding, oil the wildcard
Record tag, red close: the tape faded from all-time highs as AI-capex positioning starts to turn ahead of NVDA's 8/26 binary
BTC pinned mid-range at $64K as ETF inflows return into Extreme Fear — accumulation, not breakout
BTC pinned at $64.4K as ETF bids absorb Extreme Fear — payrolls and a Hormuz deal are the two triggers left
Index calm hides a leadership rotation: QQQ bleeds 0.9% while NVDA breaks away — the tape is repricing AI hardware ahead of the print
BTC holds $64.8K on a trending tape — but a one-fund ETF bid and a selling Strategy keep the breakout honest
BTC holds $64.3K mid-range as ETF bid flips positive and Hormuz de-escalation drains the oil premium
Semis reclaim the driver's seat as S&P prints a record; the tell is real yields aren't easing under the melt-up
Hormuz de-escalation and $153M of ETF buying meet a $100M custody scare — BTC drifts at $64.3k, mid-range
Hormuz relief bid lifts BTC to $63.8k, but hawkish carry and a fragile flow book cap the ceiling
AI-capex breadth carries indices to record highs as VIX collapses to 16; NVDA leads, MSTR's broken flywheel lags
BTC's $63.7K bounce is oil-relief, not a re-rate — clean book, one-name ETF demand, resistance at $66.8K
Oil craters on Trump-Iran deal but BTC can't lift off $62.6K — flows and MSTR selling cap the bounce
War Premium Bleeds Out: Oil's Collapse Meets a Fed That Won't Blink Until Payrolls
Hormuz de-escalation hands BTC a contrarian bid at $63.4K — but lower highs and thin tape keep it tactical
BTC pins $63K into a Coldcard custody panic and $100 oil — capitulation sentiment meets a live Strategy overhang
BTC pinned at $62.6k with a $5B Strategy overhang and weekend Iran strike risk into Monday's open
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.