The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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BTC hugs $62.9K range floor as ETF bid breaks and Hormuz tail-risk quietly eases
Quiet drift off records masks a rotation out of crowded tech — MSTR's 4% flush is the fault line, NVDA the Aug 26 pivot
BTC pinned at $62.8K range-low as ETF outflows stack — the whole tape hinges on defending $62.4K
BTC pinned at $62.7K on the 30-day floor — accelerating ETF outflows meet quiet whale accumulation
Tech carries a record close as VIX cracks 15 — but the whole tape now hangs on NVDA's Aug 26 print
BTC grinds the lower third of its box at $63.4K as the ETF bid stalls — $62.5K is the tripwire
BTC grinds at $63.6k in Extreme Fear as institutions absorb the flush — the SEC vote breaks the tie
NVDA carries a thin tape into CPI while TSLA and MSTR confirm downside — this is dispersion, not a system bid
BTC pinned at $63.5K in the lower third of range — ETF bid holds the floor, oil shock caps the ceiling
BTC coils at $64K into July CPI — clean book, returning ETF bid, but Hormuz oil and a steepening curve cap the tape
Controlled drift-down masks an underpriced NVDA binary; VIX at 15.4 prices zero event risk two weeks out
BTC parks at $63.7K into CPI — $1B ETF wave holds the floor while rates reprice higher
BTC pinned mid-range at $64.3K into Wednesday's CPI — oil de-escalation vs. corporate supply is the tie-break
Flat S&P hides a semis-and-crypto rout: NVDA fades a $500B headline, MSTR sells BTC at a loss, macro stays risk-on
ETFs absorb $1B while BTC drifts at $64K — flow says accumulation, the thin book says wait for $66.8K
Institutions absorb $850M into ETFs while retail sits in Fear — BTC's $64.8K hold is a flow story, not a chase
CPI is the pivot: a coin-flip September Fed decision meets a crowd positioned one direction
Record ETF inflows meet a $67k wall — $1B in demand buys no breakout as BTC coils at $65k
Record ETF week can't clear $65K: institutional bid meets an $67.5K supply wall no one's ready to breach
ETF demand carries BTC to $65K, but rising real yields cap the bid until the 10Y rolls over
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.