The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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BTC claws back to $64.2K on a trending tape, but a Hormuz oil shock and rising VIX cap the bounce
Chip rout broke QQQ’s $700 while SPY neared support; this still looks like rotation stress, not broad liquidation
BTC reclaimed $64K, but oil and rates still own the tape until $65.4K breaks
BTC pinned at $63K under a collapsed Iran ceasefire — weak dollar the only bid against a hawkish Fed
Semis broke first, but the bigger tell is whether a calm vol/rates backdrop can still rescue tech tomorrow
BTC holds $64K in a trending tape as the dollar cracks — Extreme Fear masks a clean-book accumulation setup
BTC slips to $63.9K, but easing rates and defensive rotation still argue for holding the upper end of the range
Soft inflation kept the index bid, but failed AI leadership left the Nasdaq on the back foot
BTC reclaims $64.9K on a clean third leg higher — but a punitive real-yield, strong-dollar backdrop caps the trend
BTC reclaims $65K on a trending tape as a Hormuz oil shock and a hawkish Fed fight the bid
Tech carries the tape on cool CPI while bonds reject the disinflation story — the rates-vs-stocks split is the whole read
BTC snaps 3.8% higher to $64.5K as sellers exhaust — but $87 Brent and $4B of Q2 ETF bleed cap the tape
BTC grinds to $63.9k as oil shock meets washed-out leverage — a coiled tape waiting on CPI and Hormuz
Semis-led shakeout hits QQQ twice as hard as SPY while a steepening curve and VIX at 15 keep the macro tape risk-on
Hormuz shut, Brent $80+, BTC bleaks to $62K — a range-floor test, not yet a break
Hormuz shut, Brent +5%, BTC clings to $62.5K — oil shock outweighs a re-emerging BlackRock bid
Complacency Meets Inflation Risk as Gold Breaks, Oil Reprices Hormuz, and CPI Tests the Fed
Hormuz re-closed, ceasefire dead — yet BTC holds $64K on a spring-loaded tape nobody is leaning into
BTC holds $64K through Iran strikes on a trending tape — resilience is the signal, thin volume the caveat
BTC kisses $64.4k as ETF flows flip green — but a 69% September hike bet caps the re-rate
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.