The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Tech bid pays for the front-end shock — QQQ +2.4% absorbs a 15bp 2y spike, but MSTR breaks down and rates aren't confirming
Ceasefire eases oil, but bear-steepening rates pin BTC at $63K — extreme fear hasn't bought the dip yet
Iran ceasefire cracks the year's biggest tail-risk, but BTC at $64.3K still trades like beta, not a hedge
Bond market shrugs, equities flinch: hawkish Warsh debut sells the tape while high-beta crypto and EV proxies lead the bleed
Oil collapse loosens conditions, but BTC rejects $65K into Warsh's debut — relief rally on thin air
Oil collapse and dovish macro turn meet Extreme Fear at $65K — but the tape still belongs to the downtrend
Tech leads a quiet tape lower as NVDA fades its record bond raise — vol stays calm, but the breakout failed into FOMC
Hormuz deal kills the oil premium, but BTC sits out the risk-on move — short-covering, not accumulation
Hormuz peace deal hands BTC a macro tailwind — but broken demand keeps $66K a coin-flip, not a launchpad
Relief rally led by beta: Iran-deal vol unwind lifts QQQ 3.1% and NVDA's $20B bond tap, but a steepening curve keeps it tactical
BTC reclaims $66.5K on Iran peace relief — but it's macro beta, not a structural bid, with BOJ next
Iran deal collapses oil and Fed hike odds — BTC breaks to $66.5K, but a thin book and Tuesday's BOJ guard the door
BTC coils at $64.3K into a Hormuz-reopening catalyst — Extreme Fear and a clean book against half-volume conviction
BTC grinds to $64.2K on a wall of worry — Iran deal and Warsh FOMC are next week's circuit-breakers
Peace-deal bounce lifts BTC to $64.1k, but a strong dollar and Warsh's first FOMC cap the squeeze
Rates did the heavy lifting, but the tape says risk appetite is rebuilding beyond index relief
BTC reclaims $63K as the Hormuz risk premium collapses — but a clean book and Warsh's first FOMC keep the bounce on probation
BTC reclaims $63K on Iran de-escalation, but 2.26% real yields keep the macro path tilted lower
Tech-led rebound reclaimed the tape, but it did so with 10-year yields at 4.55% and VIX still above 22
BTC bounces 2.6% to $63.3K, but a tightening macro and a broken Iran ceasefire keep this a relief rally, not a turn
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.