The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Hormuz shuts, oil rips, Fed hike odds harden — BTC's $62.9K bounce is a relief, not a reversal
AI leadership cracked again, and with the dollar firm and vol near 20, this looks like distribution—not a clean dip
BTC pinned at $61.7K, 4% above the $59K floor — extreme fear meets a macro that won't blink
BTC pins $61.5K at extreme fear as CPI looms — lean OI and negative funding set up a binary squeeze
Crowded-AI flush, not a rollover — but MSTR's broken 'never sell' rule is the overhang index puts can't hedge
BTC grinds at $62K with no panic and no bid — outflows slow but macro offers no rescue
BTC clings to $62.5K after losing $60K: short squeeze meets a hawkish Fed and a fragile Hormuz ceasefire
Tech leads the bounce but the bond market hasn't signed off — QQQ +1.6% rides NVDA's buy-the-dip while a 4.55% 10-year keeps the leash short
BTC squeezes off $59K floor to $63.4K, but rate shock and a 40% VIX spike cap the bounce
BTC bounces to $63.8K on a short squeeze, but a hawkish Fed and a re-igniting Iran war cap the rally
The Fed's Hike Pivot Meets a $100 Oil Shock — CPI Wednesday Decides the Regime
BTC's $2k bounce to $62K is a breather, not a bottom — macro stack and Hormuz still pin the tape lower
BTC clings to $61.9K above the 200-week line as hawkish Fed, shut Hormuz and ETF bleed collide
BTC cracks $60K — 52% off ATH as ETF bleed, MSTR sale and a hawkish jobs print gut the digital-gold thesis
BTC loses $60K for first time since the 2024 election — capitulation tape, but no macro reason to catch it yet
AVGO's air pocket breaks the AI-capex consensus — $1T in chips erased, no dip-buyer in sight, and the tape is trending down
BTC bleeds to $61.6K on record ETF exodus and Strategy's first sale since 2022 — $60K is the line
BTC pierces $62K on record ETF bleed and a broken Saylor bid — NFP is the only switch left to flip
Dow rips to a record while tech bleeds — Broadcom's no-raise resets the AI ceiling and the rotation does the rest
Record ETF outflows drag BTC to $63.5K — flow event, not yet a floor; $61K is the line that decides
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.