The research publication of QAXUS
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A record of the moment.
A perspective on what comes next.
Independent research. Open to read.
Published research
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Treasury buyback liquidity + $606M ETF streak push BTC to $77.3K — but the range top at $78.5K is the whole trade
Cyclicals lead a green tape while NVDA fades into its Aug 26 print — single-name momentum, not an index melt-up
BTC rips 23% off $62.8k to $77.5k on a Treasury-buyback liquidity bid — $80k is the honest test
BTC rips to $77K on record ETF bid and a short squeeze — trending tape, but spot demand hasn't confirmed
Yields fall, tape falls with them: SPY closes on lows as MSTR rips on BTC's $69K break and NVDA drifts into its print
BTC rips to $72.6K on $1B ETF flow reversal — but 90 days of absent US demand keeps the breakout on probation
Treasury buyback shock caps yields, drives BTC +10.9% to $71.9K — into resistance, not through it
SPY grinds green while the growth complex fades — TSLA and MSTR carry a dispersion tape, NVDA holds its breath into 8/26
BTC rips to $69K on a short squeeze — breakout confirmed, conviction still missing
BTC pinned mid-range at $64.8K into Fed minutes; contested ETF flows and a Hormuz oil shock cap the grind
Rotation, not regime: AI hardware liquidated as software and defensives catch the bid; MSTR breaks on bitcoin-buying pause
Bitcoin grinds back over $64K on a softer dollar, but ETF outflows and a war premium refuse to confirm the bid
BTC reclaims $64K on a softer dollar, but ETF outflows and $91 Brent keep this repair work, not breakout
Energy and long-end yields break the record chase; one hot beta name masks broad distribution under the tape
BTC absorbs $385M of ETF outflows to hold $64K — grind higher on positioning, not a breakout
BTC defends $62.5K on flat funding as institutional bid builds under fearful retail — FOMC minutes are the decider
The Long End Won't Cooperate: Term-Premium Repricing vs a Fed That Lost the Narrative
BTC coils at $63K on a soft dollar it can't monetize — Hormuz deadline and $62K floor decide the next move
Easing curve says buy the dip; leaking ETF bid and a shut Hormuz say wait — BTC coils at $63K
BTC pins $63K while the ETF channel closes for the weekend — friendlier macro, absent bid, crypto-native floor on trial
Research archive updated
Each brief reflects the information and perspective at publication. Read it in context, consider the uncertainties, and revisit the original record.
Research, not investment advice.